Projection of Covid-19 Dynamics in the United States
Please find here the state by state projection of the development of
COVID-19 in the United States based on a modified version of the
susceptible-infected-recovered model. The details of the model can be found at:
The simulation is based on the assumption that the mitigation efforts remain unchanged from now.
At present, we have not analyzed the states which had less than 10 death counts by April 20. Given the sparsity
of the data, we do not expect meaningful results can be obtained for those states within our model. Our
calculation is not based on extrapolating the data from other countries but it is based exclusively on the
currently available data of the epidemic in each individual state in the USA. The analysis which is currently missing
include Alaska, Hawaii, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Analysis for all the other states
Projection for the United States can be found here
Select a state in the following pull-down menu to see the projection. They are arranged according to the FIPS code.